VUCA Archives - The Certior Group

Man Plans and God Laughs: Insights from Our Family Road Trip

August 4, 2020 by Avi Kantor

Thanks to COVID-19, I believe that my family will look back and fondly remember our recent vacation as both the “VUCA” and the “True Wealth” road trip. I’ll explain why in this post.

For years now, our family has accepted the idea that we live in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world. I’ve written before about the term; it was coined by the Army War College to describe the conditions that would exist with the collapse of the Soviet Union and has subsequently caught on with academics and the business community.

According to the American Automobile Association, the overall number of summer road trips will decline this year because of the increase in new cases of the coronavirus, activity restrictions in certain parts of the country, and fears about asymptomatic spread of the virus. Nevertheless, we decided that, despite some concerns about COVID-19, we could take appropriate precautions and travel safely. It turned out that the virus was only one of the VUCA factors we would encounter on the trip.

Our original plan was to spend a month on the road, first touring several National Parks we had never visited before – Bryce Canyon and Zion in Utah and the Grand Canyon in Northern Arizona. From there, we planned on stopping in Las Vegas before driving eastward through New Mexico, on to Austin, TX, and then to New Orleans where I attended college at Tulane. From there, we planned to head back to Jackson via Dallas, New Mexico and Colorado.

Upon returning home, my son reminded me of an old Yiddish proverb, “Man plans, and God Laughs” (Der mentsh trakht un Got lakht). Our trip was an example of this truth.

The national parks were stunning but it was very hot hiking during the day. As my daughter Jordyn would later remark, the weather taught us “tolerance”. That, being cooped-up as a family in small hotel rooms every night, and dealing with the reality of COVID-19 in every situation and encounter with strangers became a master class in patience, understanding, and self-regulation under stress for not only her but for all of us.

Then there was a fire on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon, which forced us unexpectedly to drive all the way around to the South Rim in order to experience the Grand Canyon’s stunning scale and beauty.

As the trip unfolded, the spread of COVID-19 began shutting down some of our planned destinations. After stops in St. George, UT, Las Vegas, and Sedona, AZ, it became clearer that our plans could be even further disrupted if we attempted to travel on to emerging “hot spots” like Houston and other parts of Texas. Reluctantly, we decided as a family to cut our trip short and make the long drive back to Jackson, WY.

Despite having to alter our plans, there were many memorable moments and big “ah ha’s”. Unanimously, we remember hiking The Narrows in Zion National Park as a highlight of the trip. The Narrows is the narrowest part of Zion Canyon where the Virgin River has carved a gorge that at times is only a few feet wide in a one thousand foot tall ancient rock canyon. It’s not a cliché to say that it’s “awesome”.

My “ah ha” is that humans are relative newcomers on this planet, scurrying around with our seemingly important plans and aspirations. Meanwhile, nature evolves and changes at its own pace. For millions of years, the Virgin River has flowed down from the mountains, slowly, inexorably shaping Zion Canyon. There’s nothing like the gratitude that awe inspires. And it was certainly awe and gratitude that we experienced in The Narrows. Sensing those millions of years of rocks, river, and weather that had led up to our few moments of shared True Wealth, it was a part of what we’ll long remember about the Summer of 2020.

Crisis Creates an Opportunity to Focus on What Matters Most

March 20, 2020 by Avi Kantor

“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.” -Viktor Frankl, Holocaust Survivor

A global pandemic. Panic buying of supplies. Stocks declining steeply. Schools and businesses closing. Cities under lockdown.

All of our lives have been disrupted.

Under these conditions, psychologists and neuroscientists understand and expect that many people will experience fear, anxiety, and an inability to focus and think clearly. They call this the “amygdala hijack”, singling out the emotional part of the brain – the amygdala – that triggers our primitive “fight or flight” response to perceived danger. With the whole world triggered by unprecedented events – events that could potentially spiral even further into uncharted territory – how might we keep from being amygdala hijacked? How might we remain calm, centered, and focused?

Of course, there are intoxicants of all forms and escapism that can temporarily distract our minds from current events. But keep us calm, centered, and focused? Probably not. Many have turned to mindfulness meditation, yoga, exercise, and other forms of relaxation. I’m an advocate of many of these disciplines. Our work, though, suggests that there’s another option.

"I am grateful for" written in a notebook with a pen.

Over the years, we’ve been very intentional about practicing Gratitude. Our experience has been that Gratitude has helped us, our family members, our colleagues, and clients appreciate the many blessings we all have and find the good in even the most challenging situations. This practice has never been more relevant and necessary for our collective wellbeing.

Through the lens of Gratitude, we have an opportunity to refocus our minds on what’s essential for our wellbeing; that which brings us happiness, fulfillment, meaning, and joy. We call this True Wealth. But regardless of what one calls it, there are enduring parts of our lives that persist despite the coronavirus, the stock market, and the disruption that’s affected us all. For most of us, this includes our family, our continued good health (if we’re currently blessed with good health), our Faith, the many diverse experiences we’ve had and continue to have, and the joy of contributing to the wellbeing of others.

Holocaust survivor Viktor Frankl said, “Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.” Now is our time to choose…to choose Gratitude and True Wealth…and to help others do the same.

Experiential Learning Breeds Collaboration

October 7, 2019 by Avi Kantor

I often speak about collaboration as an important, often overlooked, element in the work that professionals do. Recently, my colleagues and I had an experience that suggested what collaboration looks like in action and how to create the conditions for great collaboration to occur.

Below is a picture of a climbing wall in Chaska, MN. At a conference at this site, a group individuals from various professions including myself and Certior Group colleagues Hal Hershgordon and Patty Totaro were tasked with scaling this wall in random teams of three.

We were supplied with safety equipment – helmets, harnesses, ropes, etc. – and organized in a manner that minimized the risk of a fall or accident. But there were several constraints that made the climb unique: each threesome was tethered together and the middle climber was blindfolded. Patty Totaro is the blindfolded climber in the picture below.

Below, I’m beginning the climb blindfolded, guided by my two teammates.

Below is a picture of the teams of supporters controlling the safety ropes.

The people on the ground did much more than just provide rope support. They also gave the climbers verbal encouragement and often, verbal suggestions about the next critical move to make.

The unblindfolded climbers were highly focused on assisting and guiding their blindfolded co-climber. Hal Hershgordon is the climber on the left literally helping the blindfolded woman move her left foot to her next foothold.

(If you look closely, you noticed raindrops in the picture above. The downpour that occurred during the event made for slippery conditions, adding to the difficulty and complexity of the activity).

Ultimately, most of the groups succeeded in reaching the top. But in some ways, that wasn’t the main takeaway from the experience. In fact, while the experience itself was exhilarating, climbing the wall blindfolded with teammates and supporters has for me become a metaphor for collaboration in business and in life.

There are so many parallels, analogies, and lessons embedded in the wall climbing experience. For this article, I’ll focus on just three. First, as advisors, we’re tethered to our clients, guiding them, and helping them take the next small step – the next critical move – along their metaphorical climbs in business and in life. Certainly there are others giving encouragement, making suggestions, and “holding the ropes” from time to time. But we’re there with them, helping them steward their True Wealth.

Second, sometimes it’s raining, the wall is slippery, the situation seems overwhelming, and the next move is unclear. We use the acronym V.U.C.A. (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) to describe these conditions and, by analogy, the world we live in. Yet, the learning is in the struggle to move up the wall (or forward in business and life). It helps to have guidance and support.

Finally, after climbing we all got a chance to celebrate not only our own accomplishments but those of others.

We often don’t allow ourselves to fully experience and celebrate the positive moments in our lives. A motto that came out in the aftermath of the wall climbing experience was “Savor the Good”. It’s something that I hope we can all adopt and grow into.

How to Navigate in a VUCA World?

August 7, 2019 by Avi Kantor

In the late 1980’s the United States Army War College developed the acronym VUCA to describe the conditions that would exist at the end of the Cold War with the Soviet Union. VUCA stands for “volatile”, “uncertain”, “complex”, and “ambiguous”. In hindsight, that did accurately describe what the world was like when the Soviet Union fell in 1991. Since then, the business world has adopted the VUCA acronym to suggest the many challenges that business owners, executives, and managers face. For The Certior Group, because of rapidly changing conditions in the world – for example, in politics, economics, law, technology, social norms, etc. – we’ve adopted the notion that we all live in a VUCA world.

“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of human freedoms – to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.” – Viktor E. Frank¹

Some people don’t fully appreciate the profundity of Frankl’s statement. Much of what’s VUCA in our world is beyond our individual control. We don’t control large technology companies or how they gather data about all of us. We don’t control the way government operates. We can’t control the way politics unfolds, or how the natural environment might be changing, or how social media may be changing how we experience our lives. Yet, as Viktor Frankl suggested, we have a choice; we can at least choose our attitude.

Our firm has taken this idea of choosing one’s attitude and artificially divided the VUCA world into two attitudes: personal reactions that are “not Gratitude” or responses that are “Gratitude”. This is clearly an artificial, abstract “map”² of the VUCA world that we live in, not the actual world of politics, Google, the internet, Facebook, Instagram, mobile devices, climate change, pollution, fake news, etc. But, as Viktor Frankl said, by choosing our way, we’re finding that following this “map”, leads to practicing Gratitude.

What does it mean to practice Gratitude? From our perspective, it means to respect, appreciate, and be generous in spirit with others and oneself. It is the ongoing practice of Gratitude that we’ve found to be one of the keys to thriving in a VUCA world. A growing body of research supports the idea that we can become more resilient, despite VUCA in our lives, when we become more grateful. How to practice Gratitude is the focus of our public events, workshops, and client work. Please join us in making Gratitude part of the antidote to a VUCA world.

(1) Man’s Search for Meaning, Viktor E. Frankl, 2006.

(2) In 1932, Polish-American scientist and philosopher Alfred Korzybski published an article in which he stated that “the map is not the territory”, meaning that abstract concepts help us understand reality but should not be confused with reality.

What Will The Future of Family Stewardship Be?

October 1, 2018 by Avi Kantor

In the late 20th century, the United States Army War College created the acronym VUCA to describe the conditions that would exist after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The acronym stands for volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. The term has caught on with the military and, especially, in business, describing the general conditions that exist today in nearly every aspect of our daily lives: technology, culture, politics, economics, etc. Massive changes, simultaneous opportunities for greater abundance as well as disruption of our way of life, are the order of the day.

As science and technology inexorably advance, there may soon come a day when sophisticated tax, legal, accounting, financial, and other technical information and strategies will be widely available on demand to the general public at an affordable price. We will also face unprecedented disruptions in our traditional patterns of work, career development, family dynamics, aging, and retirement.[1] Perhaps these trends will eventually lead to a world where artificial intelligence, “big data”, and algorithms know us so well that our most sophisticated multi-generational planning is automated and personalized.[2]

With the inexorable advance of technology and its dominance in our everyday lives, what will the future of family stewardship planning be?

Charles H. Green, the author of the book “The Trusted Advisor” says:

“People rarely give over their trust to institutions; really, they trust other people…While companies are often described as credible and reliable…it’s really the people within the companies that make those companies what they are.”

The Trusted Advisor

In a rapidly changing VUCA world, we do our best to foster participation and engagement in experiences where people are in conversations with other people. We view our role as guiding people down the path of discovery through these experiences and conversations. The practice of Gratitude especially has, in our experience, transformed people’s experience of wealth and their experiences of other family members, making them more aware of their common bonds and shared values.

Stewardship involves building and developing leadership in future generations and committing to ethical excellence in the way we lead our lives and families. Stewardship and family leadership also involves intentionally being aware of and nurturing sustainable family culture (the traditions, rituals, ceremonies, and unspoken ways that families do things, interact, as well as the expectations that go with these activities). Family culture is often a missing element in trust and estate planning, especially when governance and structure are the primary emphasis in the planning process. We view this as our opportunity to make a difference in the effectiveness of the planning process, regardless of the state of the world, technology, or existing relationships with other advisors.

[1] “Reimagining Maturity”, Ken Dychtwald, American Society on Aging Annual Conference, General Session Keynote address, March 23, 2015.

[2] Peter Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil, Abundance 360, Livestream, September 14, 2018. During this video broadcast Kurzweil and Diamandis speculated that such capabilities might become widely available within the next 10 to 15 years because of what Kurzweil calls “the law of accelerating returns”.

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