VUCA Archives - The Certior Group

Remaining Hopeful in the New Year with Leadership

December 30, 2020 by Avi Kantor

Prior to 2020, we would begin our presentations with the statement, “We live in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world.” We would then ask people for examples of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity in their personal lives. They were often slow to come up with any examples, as if VUCA was an abstract idea that applied mostly to others. 2020 has changed that.

First, it was a virus that might (we didn’t know for sure) kill us.

Sanitize everything. Stay home and stay away from people.

Businesses and schools shutdown…

Stimulus money…

Masks…

Elections…

Protests…

Cyber attacks…

Vaccines…herd immunity?

What hasn’t changed is our view that healthy mindsets, practices, and supportive communities are what counteract VUCA. In 2020, we’ve learned that whatever is happening in our lives, we can choose to be grateful. Despite adversity and things not going the way we’d like them to, we can still notice what’s good in our lives, even if they’re small things. Perhaps 2020 has made you more aware of what matters most to you and to those around you. Optimizing True Wealth – what matters most to us – in every phase of our clients’ lives, has always been the primary vision for our work. We may all look back on 2020 and realize that this year gave us deeper insights and clarity into what True Wealth means to each of us. Perhaps 2021 will be a year where we plan and reorganize our lives around what truly matters most.

With this year’s VUCA have come widespread challenges to our individual mental health and sense of wellbeing. Instances of anxiety, depression, addictive behaviors, domestic violence, and suicidal thoughts have spiked as basic safety, security, and human needs have been threatened. To counteract the mental health and wellbeing threats we face, our approach is to develop and nurture the practices and habits that support our True Wealth. Specifically, the work of James Clear and his book Atomic Habits provide guidance on how we might form and sustain the habits of an anti-VUCA, True Wealth lifestyle. We’ll have more to say on this in 2021. Finally, 2020 has made it clear to most of us that human beings are social creatures. It’s never been more apparent that we flourish when we’re around others who bring out the best in us. Certainly, the trend towards more remote, technology-enabled work will continue. But whether it’s virtual or in person, our families, groups, and communities are and will be a big part of how we can make 2021 and beyond better for us all.

The Under-Appreciated Art of Wise Decision Making

November 23, 2020 by Avi Kantor

It was the kind of problem I had solved routinely in the past.

A couple came into my office seeking advice on whether to sell or keep their lake house (I’ve altered a few of the facts in order to honor the privacy of the family involved). This is the sort of logical, mathematical problem that financial advisors are trained to analyze. Once I understood the reason for the couple’s visit, my mind immediately went into solution-mode. What’s the assumed rate of return? What’s inflation going to be? What are the tax consequences? What’s the discounted present value of future returns from alternative investments? And so on, and so on…

But there was something about this situation that was different from the past. Looking back, I believe that difference was a shift in my perspective brought on by the work and mindset we’ve been cultivating at the Certior Group.

As I began the meeting, instead of telling the couple what my analysis was, I asked them to tell me about the house. At first they just described it: how big it is, how old it is, its features. It was the sort of description you might find on Zillow.com or some other real estate website. Then I asked them what the house meant to them. That did it. They started talking about the memories they had of family gatherings; of sharing the house with friends; and letting others use the house when they weren’t there. They talked about the joyous occasions they had had. On and on they went…and at the end, they looked at each other and said almost simultaneously, “We can’t sell the house. It means too much to us, to everyone.”

Researchers who study intelligence call this kind of thinking crystallized intelligence; the ability to size up what’s relevant in the present, scan the past for clues and possible parallels, and imagine future scenarios playing out. This skill contrasts with what the same researchers call fluid intelligence – what we commonly view as the traits of “smart” people – the ability to think quickly, logically, and remember large amounts of information and data. Crystallized intelligence is the mark of wisdom. It was wisdom, not logic, that swayed this couple’s decision. And it’s wisdom that we can continue to cultivate – especially during these times.

Given the ongoing pandemic, the aftermath of our recent elections continuing to dominate the media and social media and the volatile economy – we will be called upon to make important decisions under ambiguous, uncertain conditions. And with the upcoming holidays, these are stressful times for us all. Stress, anxiety, and perhaps fear or anger, are understandable reactions to the current circumstances. But these reactions make decision making that much more difficult. In my experience and as I’ve written before in this blog, we have the opportunity to face these circumstances by beginning in Gratitude. Gratitude for the everyday goodness that’s still in our lives. Gratitude, and cultivating Wisdom can serve us well in the days ahead.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Man Plans and God Laughs: Insights from Our Family Road Trip

August 4, 2020 by Avi Kantor

Thanks to COVID-19, I believe that my family will look back and fondly remember our recent vacation as both the “VUCA” and the “True Wealth” road trip. I’ll explain why in this post.

For years now, our family has accepted the idea that we live in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world. I’ve written before about the term; it was coined by the Army War College to describe the conditions that would exist with the collapse of the Soviet Union and has subsequently caught on with academics and the business community.

According to the American Automobile Association, the overall number of summer road trips will decline this year because of the increase in new cases of the coronavirus, activity restrictions in certain parts of the country, and fears about asymptomatic spread of the virus. Nevertheless, we decided that, despite some concerns about COVID-19, we could take appropriate precautions and travel safely. It turned out that the virus was only one of the VUCA factors we would encounter on the trip.

Our original plan was to spend a month on the road, first touring several National Parks we had never visited before – Bryce Canyon and Zion in Utah and the Grand Canyon in Northern Arizona. From there, we planned on stopping in Las Vegas before driving eastward through New Mexico, on to Austin, TX, and then to New Orleans where I attended college at Tulane. From there, we planned to head back to Jackson via Dallas, New Mexico and Colorado.

Upon returning home, my son reminded me of an old Yiddish proverb, “Man plans, and God Laughs” (Der mentsh trakht un Got lakht). Our trip was an example of this truth.

The national parks were stunning but it was very hot hiking during the day. As my daughter Jordyn would later remark, the weather taught us “tolerance”. That, being cooped-up as a family in small hotel rooms every night, and dealing with the reality of COVID-19 in every situation and encounter with strangers became a master class in patience, understanding, and self-regulation under stress for not only her but for all of us.

Then there was a fire on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon, which forced us unexpectedly to drive all the way around to the South Rim in order to experience the Grand Canyon’s stunning scale and beauty.

As the trip unfolded, the spread of COVID-19 began shutting down some of our planned destinations. After stops in St. George, UT, Las Vegas, and Sedona, AZ, it became clearer that our plans could be even further disrupted if we attempted to travel on to emerging “hot spots” like Houston and other parts of Texas. Reluctantly, we decided as a family to cut our trip short and make the long drive back to Jackson, WY.

Despite having to alter our plans, there were many memorable moments and big “ah ha’s”. Unanimously, we remember hiking The Narrows in Zion National Park as a highlight of the trip. The Narrows is the narrowest part of Zion Canyon where the Virgin River has carved a gorge that at times is only a few feet wide in a one thousand foot tall ancient rock canyon. It’s not a cliché to say that it’s “awesome”.

My “ah ha” is that humans are relative newcomers on this planet, scurrying around with our seemingly important plans and aspirations. Meanwhile, nature evolves and changes at its own pace. For millions of years, the Virgin River has flowed down from the mountains, slowly, inexorably shaping Zion Canyon. There’s nothing like the gratitude that awe inspires. And it was certainly awe and gratitude that we experienced in The Narrows. Sensing those millions of years of rocks, river, and weather that had led up to our few moments of shared True Wealth, it was a part of what we’ll long remember about the Summer of 2020.

Crisis Creates an Opportunity to Focus on What Matters Most

March 20, 2020 by Avi Kantor

“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.” -Viktor Frankl, Holocaust Survivor

A global pandemic. Panic buying of supplies. Stocks declining steeply. Schools and businesses closing. Cities under lockdown.

All of our lives have been disrupted.

Under these conditions, psychologists and neuroscientists understand and expect that many people will experience fear, anxiety, and an inability to focus and think clearly. They call this the “amygdala hijack”, singling out the emotional part of the brain – the amygdala – that triggers our primitive “fight or flight” response to perceived danger. With the whole world triggered by unprecedented events – events that could potentially spiral even further into uncharted territory – how might we keep from being amygdala hijacked? How might we remain calm, centered, and focused?

Of course, there are intoxicants of all forms and escapism that can temporarily distract our minds from current events. But keep us calm, centered, and focused? Probably not. Many have turned to mindfulness meditation, yoga, exercise, and other forms of relaxation. I’m an advocate of many of these disciplines. Our work, though, suggests that there’s another option.

"I am grateful for" written in a notebook with a pen.

Over the years, we’ve been very intentional about practicing Gratitude. Our experience has been that Gratitude has helped us, our family members, our colleagues, and clients appreciate the many blessings we all have and find the good in even the most challenging situations. This practice has never been more relevant and necessary for our collective wellbeing.

Through the lens of Gratitude, we have an opportunity to refocus our minds on what’s essential for our wellbeing; that which brings us happiness, fulfillment, meaning, and joy. We call this True Wealth. But regardless of what one calls it, there are enduring parts of our lives that persist despite the coronavirus, the stock market, and the disruption that’s affected us all. For most of us, this includes our family, our continued good health (if we’re currently blessed with good health), our Faith, the many diverse experiences we’ve had and continue to have, and the joy of contributing to the wellbeing of others.

Holocaust survivor Viktor Frankl said, “Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.” Now is our time to choose…to choose Gratitude and True Wealth…and to help others do the same.

Experiential Learning Breeds Collaboration

October 7, 2019 by Avi Kantor

I often speak about collaboration as an important, often overlooked, element in the work that professionals do. Recently, my colleagues and I had an experience that suggested what collaboration looks like in action and how to create the conditions for great collaboration to occur.

Below is a picture of a climbing wall in Chaska, MN. At a conference at this site, a group individuals from various professions including myself and Certior Group colleagues Hal Hershgordon and Patty Totaro were tasked with scaling this wall in random teams of three.

We were supplied with safety equipment – helmets, harnesses, ropes, etc. – and organized in a manner that minimized the risk of a fall or accident. But there were several constraints that made the climb unique: each threesome was tethered together and the middle climber was blindfolded. Patty Totaro is the blindfolded climber in the picture below.

Below, I’m beginning the climb blindfolded, guided by my two teammates.

Below is a picture of the teams of supporters controlling the safety ropes.

The people on the ground did much more than just provide rope support. They also gave the climbers verbal encouragement and often, verbal suggestions about the next critical move to make.

The unblindfolded climbers were highly focused on assisting and guiding their blindfolded co-climber. Hal Hershgordon is the climber on the left literally helping the blindfolded woman move her left foot to her next foothold.

(If you look closely, you noticed raindrops in the picture above. The downpour that occurred during the event made for slippery conditions, adding to the difficulty and complexity of the activity).

Ultimately, most of the groups succeeded in reaching the top. But in some ways, that wasn’t the main takeaway from the experience. In fact, while the experience itself was exhilarating, climbing the wall blindfolded with teammates and supporters has for me become a metaphor for collaboration in business and in life.

There are so many parallels, analogies, and lessons embedded in the wall climbing experience. For this article, I’ll focus on just three. First, as advisors, we’re tethered to our clients, guiding them, and helping them take the next small step – the next critical move – along their metaphorical climbs in business and in life. Certainly there are others giving encouragement, making suggestions, and “holding the ropes” from time to time. But we’re there with them, helping them steward their True Wealth.

Second, sometimes it’s raining, the wall is slippery, the situation seems overwhelming, and the next move is unclear. We use the acronym V.U.C.A. (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) to describe these conditions and, by analogy, the world we live in. Yet, the learning is in the struggle to move up the wall (or forward in business and life). It helps to have guidance and support.

Finally, after climbing we all got a chance to celebrate not only our own accomplishments but those of others.

We often don’t allow ourselves to fully experience and celebrate the positive moments in our lives. A motto that came out in the aftermath of the wall climbing experience was “Savor the Good”. It’s something that I hope we can all adopt and grow into.

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